Re: Informix Buyout
Nils.Myklebust@idg.no (Nils Myklebust) wrote: >"James McGovern" <mcgovej@commandsys.com> wrote: >:I have heard from an insider that Microsoft is planning on purchasing >:Informix and will be making their final decision on friday. I will post >:information here, when I learn more... >That would be a catastrophe for the database industry as well as the >general software industry. That would be very smart for MSFT. It is rare for a company to buy another company at a major price bottom (if they listen to Wall Street "advisors" that is). However, MSFT could accomplish this feat if it acts independently of Wall Street "counsellors" who would always front-run and load up on the shares first for sure-bet windfall profits. >We all depend on powerful companies outside of Microsoft to give them >serious competition. Despite their current problems Informix is alive >and well and have a technology that could potentially be used to gain >a very significant marketshare in the database market if handled well. >This may of course be interesting enough for Microsoft, but they are >also moving themselves with the release of SQL Server ver. 7.0 Yes IFMX does have outstanding technology, DataBlade, for one. Even more reason why MSFT would be smart to quietly buy up IFMX shares at current price level. >It would be strange for Microsoft to take over a company that is so >strong in the Unix market. They wouldn't be able to, and probably not >want to, handle that part and would have to more or less write it off. >Not a small thing with a capitalized value of over US$ 1 billion and a >probable price far above that. With cash of $10 billion, it will be vacation money for MSFT. How about this (as a strategy for MSFT): Buy IFMX, transfer DataBlade and other valuable technology into SQL 8.0. Flood the UNIX market with IFMX database at or below cost and takeover market-share while wiping out all UNIX database competitors. Then provide a migration path to superior versions of SQL Server on NT while stop upgrading the UNIX version, and watch a steady switch to NT from UNIX. >I don't quite see anyone that could buy Informix. Non of the other >database companies would gain enough from it, IBM would only confuse >customers, Netscape probably isn't large enough to handle it. May be >CA. Although they would get problems with Ingres and probably have to >write that off they have done similar things before. Shure hope they >don't think about it. That's exactly why it makes sense for MSFT to acquire IFMX, and also at the current huge discount (since, as you said, others won't be able to play the bidding game). >From the shareholders point of view there is no need to sell Informix >(unless they get a very good price). They are so strong that they >could earn much more by retaining it as a separate company. Whether >the management shuffles and other things Informix are currently doing >are enough to get them back on track fast is something we will have to >wait and see. >If I where Sun, IBM, HP and a few others I would buy Informix stock to >avoide a Microsoft buyout if there where any danger. Either way, MSFT wins by buying IFMX. If SUN, IBM or HP gets into a bidding war for IFMX as you suggest, MSFT would be sitting pretty as its rivals bid up the IFMX shares that MSFT picked up for a song. There are even better strategies after that, but I shall stop here. >Nils.Myklebust@idg.no >NM Data AS, P.O.Box 9090 Gronland, N-0133 Oslo, Norway >My opinions are those of my company >The Informix FAQ is at http://www.iiug.org =============================================================== Precise, reliable price forecasts on 9,000 NYSE+AMEX+OTC stocks. The most disabusing and profitable stock market service updated DAILY for your immediate attention and profitable market action. For latest Wall Street scoop, surf to: http://www.fastgain.com/ ===============================================================