Re: Will Informix survive?

Boris Dynin wrote a silly question: [SNIP] > > Any comments will be appreciated. > > Boris Dynin > bd@movil.com Well, ask a silly question, get a silly answer. Caveats: Investing your money is your business. So, you are on your own. This advice is free so that it is exactly worth that amount. (Nothing) While this group is mainly a technical group, the question asked is vague enough to actually fit here. And if we let companies place multiple copies of their placement ads, well then, we can at least answer this question. OK, so you didn't make it to San Francisco or you are too cheap to use a real broker and get their analysts' opinions. Yes, Informix has a new CEO. Informix is planning to get a new CFO soon. Informix has restructured their sales forces. Informix has done several things right. Their involvement with Smart Cards. (IBM, and Oracle are also there too!) Their use of Java on both the server and client side. This was actually mentioned last year at the conference, but it wasn't formally hit upon till this year. Informix also mentioned support for XPS on Wolf Pack clustering. While this will be a small niche for Informix, the press value and pressure from analysts for a *MicroSoft* solution will make this worth while. NT still means not there, but Uncle Bill has enough money that he can effectively buy a solution. So while these are all positives, Informix has also done something else which indicates a turnaround. They are starting to listen to the customer. (Not just the guy with a big checkbook) Open Issues: Informix lost 140 Million or so earlier this year. It is very difficult to wipe out a loss that big in one quarter. Plus they are facing tougher competition from Oracle and IBM with their own Universal Server products. [Haven't seen them yet, so I can't comment.] So, the question becomes, how long till profitability? y guess, End of second qtr '98. (This is concervative so don't be surprised if it is earlier) Also, Informix filed papers that it will need to secure financing for its existing debt. No news as to how this is to be accomplished. Rumor has it that they have secured it from capital investors, but I have not confirmed this with their investor relations people. Informix could also go to the market with an issue of corporate bonds, or a preferred issue. (Callable stock which pays a dividend percentage based on the strike price when introduced to market.) This means greater disclosure but at a cheaper rate. [But this may already be moot.] Common sense: Well, you have seen the good and the bad. The question is how much risk are you willing to take? The bottom line is that there is enough momentum that they can survive their current problems. Remember '91-92? IANACFA, but IMHO, a stock price of $15-$17 per share is not unreasonable by the end of Q4. Rate the risk as high! Please note that I am not hyping Informix's stock. Yes, I do own a small chunck of stock. (Only Informix and my broker knows how much! ;-) But everything I have said is verifiable. The future can not be predicted, and there are factors outside of Informix which can affect the stock price. My pricing assumptions are based on the assumptions we are in a steady growth economy and that there will not be a massive price correction in the market. The Bottom Line: The stock is a buy, but don't bet the house! BTW, you are posting from the Bay Area, Why didn't you pay the $30 bucks and see for yourself? -Mike Segel Concervative Investor. -- #include <std_disclaimer.h> /* Mike Segel (MS385) */ #include <No_Spam.h> #ifdef OFFENDED_BY_CONTENT The author takes no responsibility for this post. Any resemblence to a coherent rational thought is purely coincidence. -The Management. #endif ***************************** Due to AGIS's Refusal to Act Responsibly We are blocking all of their domains at the packet level. This block will exist until AGIS modifies their policies to conform to existing RFCs and net community standards. We encourage all ISPs and domain holders to do the same. *****************************